England vs Australia, 4th Test, Manchester: Preview, predictions, likely XIs

So, after a brief interlay, we go again. After perhaps one of the all-time great Tests at Headingley, and a veritable contender for one of the all-time great Test knocks from Ben Stokes, the series is levelled 1-1, with two matches left. The first of those will be played in Manchester. The second back in London at The Oval. If England fail to win even one of these matches, they can kiss their chances of claiming the Ashes goodbye.

That said, the momentum is clearly with England. Ben Stokes will be absolutely buzzing, and with all that confidence, he’ll be even more dangerous. Australia will also need to keep an eye on the rejigged England line-up – Joe Denly has confirmed he will be moved up from No.4, with Jason Roy moved down to the middle-order. Josh Hazlewood, the Australia paceman, has said this is good news for Australia, taking it as a sign of weakness. But England will know if it works – and Roy’s hitting skills will be better suited with a slightly older ball down the order – they would unnerve Australia.

Meanwhile, England will have a bigger worry in the return of Steve Smith. The top-order batsman has returned to the line-up after missing the Headingley Test with concussion, and given his incredible effect in the first Test, England will know he is one to watch out for. However, they have in their line-up the one bowler that has troubled Smith so far – Jofra Archer. Archer and Smith had already been involved in verbals in the build-up to the match, and their contest will likely effect the outcome of the match.

All of which sets this up, in every way, for potentially an all-time great series.

Head to head

The clash on Wednesday will be the 350^th Test of this age-old rivalry. Australia have the upper hand in the overall record, with 145 wins to England’s 109, but England have the better record at home, with 52 wins to the Aussies’ 50. That record is under threat, and England have never been more desperate for another victory in the Ashes.

Key players

Joe Root (England): The England captain scored an important 77 in the second innings at Leeds – some called it a captaincy-saving effort – but there were also more groans after he failed to convert another half-century to a big total. Root really needs to find the gumption to do that, and with the Ashes at stake, this is the time to do it.

Steve Smith (Australia): Smith makes this Australian side that much more intidimidating. After that knock in the first Test, most of the questions being raised wondered if Smith could realistically be dismissed. However, in Jofra Archer, Smith has a new challenge, and one he hasn’t bested yet. Can he do that this time?

Likely XI

England: Rory Burns, Joe Denly, Joe Root (c), Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow (wk), Jos Buttler, Chris Woakes, Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Jack Leach

Australia: David Warner, Marcus Harris, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Matthew Wade, Tim Paine (c/wk), Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood

Prediction

England to secure another hugely important victory, with Archer getting the better of Smith.