Ashes 2019 1st Test, Day 5, England v Australia: Preview, predictions

The equation is simple: England have to bat out Day Five to save the first Test of the 2019 Ashes, at Edgbaston. Of course, there is a chance, however, minuscule, that they may chase down 398 – they are 13 without loss at stumps – but they are unlikely to go for it against Nathan Lyon on a dry, deteriorating pitch.

Australia, who were 122/8 in the first innings, are firm favourites at this point. England, who had gone past Australia’s first-innings score with five wickets down, have their backs to the wall.

Australia began the day on 124/3, with a lead of 34. Neither Steven Smith nor Travis Head seemed willing to bide time: they went after the bowling, adding 81 in 22 overs before Head was deceived by a slower ball from Ben Stokes and was caught behind.

Smith (142 in 207 balls) raced to his hundred – his second in the Test – while Matthew Wade (110 in 143) piled on further misery. Tim Paine, James Pattinson, and Pat Cummins all threw their bat around. Australia added 363 in 81 overs in the day before Paine summoned them inside, following which Jason Roy and Rory Burns survived five overs of anxiety.

Key players

Rory Burns (England): Burns had weathered the storm for over five hours in the first innings; he will have to do something similar to save the Test, this time against Nathan Lyon on a pitch where the odd ball is turning viciously. It is not going to be easy.

Nathan Lyon (Australia): As expected, Lyon opened bowling in the fourth innings, and will almost certainly bowl through the entire day to follow with the fast bowlers alternating at the other end. He had outthought Burns and Moeen Ali in the space of five balls in the first innings, and is likely to provide similar bursts in the second.

Brief scores

Australia 284 (Steven Smith 144, Peter Siddle 44; Stuart Broad 5/86, Chris Woakes 3/58) and 487/7 decl. (Steven Smith 142, Matthew Wade 110, Travis Head 51; Ben Stokes 3/85) lead England 374 (Rory Burns 133, Joe Root 57, Ben Stokes 50; Pat Cummins 3/84, Nathan Lyon 3/112) and 13 for no loss (Rory Burns 7*) by 385 runs.

Prediction

Australia to win in the final session.