New Zealand v England, 1st Test, Mount Maunganui: Preview, predictions, likely XIs

England’s tour of New Zealand has been touted as “revenge” for the World Cup final, at Lord’s in July. There was little to choose between the sides in the T20I series: England won the first match, then New Zealand the next two, then England the fourth – and the fifth, by a super over.

The Test series, however, is going to be a different ball game altogether, with stars like Kane Williamson, Neil Wagner, and BJ Watling returning for New Zealand and Joe Root, Stuart Broad, and Jofra Archer for England. Both sides will be fielding their full teams, so it will be a series to behold.

New Zealand have been in terrific form in this format, having won five of their last six series (the most recent, in Sri Lanka, ended in a 1-1 draw). At home, they have won the last four series, six of the last seven, and ten of the last twelve.

Their run has been largely due to their superb pace attack, one that thrives under these conditions. If Trent Boult is the spearhead, Tim Southee is the canniest of them, controlling the magical movement he manages to generate if there is assistance. Matt Henry and Neil Wagner will provide raw pace, while Colin de Grandhomme has the ability to pick up wickets out of nowhere.

It is almost impossible to fault their batting line-up as well, with all six – Watling included – capable of holding the fort against the strongest of attacks under these conditions.

England will miss James Anderson, their best man to utilise these conditions. Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, and Ben Stokes will play key roles, which means that they will have to leave out one of Chris Woakes and Sam Curran. Woakes may get the nod due to his superior record away from home.

Their batting, however, does not look as strong. Rory Burns had batted grittily in the home Ashes, but apart from Joe Root and Stokes, the batting lacks experience. Jos Buttler has not been in the best of forms in this format, Joe Denly and Ollie Pope are still too new, and one of their top-order batsmen – Zak Crawley and Dominic Sibley – will be a debutant.

While England have been a dominant force at home, their overseas record have been far from impressive. They did whitewash Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka a year ago, but that has been their only series win in away from home in six attempts and one of only two in their last ten.

Everything, thus, points towards New Zealand.

Head to head

England hold a 48-10 lead here, but the numbers come down to 11-4 in this century. On New Zealand soil the numbers read 18-5 (but 3-3 since 2000). The teams last met in 2018, a series New Zealand won 1-0. In the first Test at Auckland, England were reduced to 27/9 by Boult and Southee before they recovered to 58.

Key players

Kane Williamson (New Zealand): Williamson averages 75 this year and 59 at home, and had played a pivotal role in New Zealand’s first series win against Pakistan away from home. Having missed the T20I series, he will be raring to have a go at the English attack here.

Jofra Archer (England): Archer had troubled everyone with his pace and variations across formats this summer. It is now time for him to prove himself away from home. After a tour match, Glenn Phillips hailed Archer’s spell as the fastest he has faced till date. New Zealand may be in for trouble.

Likely XIs

New Zealand: Tom Latham, Jeet Raval, Kane Williamson (c), Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme, BJ Watling (wk), Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Matt Henry, Trent Boult.

England: Rory Burns, Dominic Sibley, Joe Denly, Joe Root (c), Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler (c), Ollie Pope, Chris Woakes, Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Jack Leach.

Prediction

New Zealand to win and go 1-0 up.